Hopefully this will in part give some market insight, but also provide a place for focused discussion for those who wish to participate. This is in no way financial advice. As one of my favorite technical indicator creators once said:
“It’s [the market] like driving on a curving mountain road in a fog bank with your cruise control locked — and you’ve desperately got to clean your eyeglasses.”
With that in mind, I hope to update this thread every few days, and will provide information about what I see and believe is relevant.
I will use Bittrex charts as that is what I use for buying Peercoin. I will try to keep the technical terms to a minimum, but please feel free to ask any questions.
1D Overview
Based on the 50 EMA, it seems most likely that we will see small movements up, followed by sideways movement for the next bit of time. The EMAs on a higher timeframe provide stronger resistance than lower timeframe ones, although these can always be disrupted. Like previously mentioned, the 12hr EMAs are very close together, indicating that we are most likely near a turning point.
1W Overview
The weekly chart has been in a decline since 2017, with several up and down cycles in-between. Currently, price has reached near equilibrium with the 50 EMA (white) and was recently tested in November. Both the TK lines are sitting on top of each other, indicating a slowing of a downtrend and value range. It appears this will be followed by a bullish cross upwards. The ichimoku future cloud also has gotten noticeably skinnier, indicating less resistance above.
Something to note from my personal experience with 3EMA. When a crossing of the EMAs upwards occurs, a price movement down usually coincides with this event, and vice versa. Just something to keep in mind.
Why bars instead of candles? You don’t see closing price with it, which can be helpful (even tho even candles are misleading picture, we don’t how it was traded tick by tick, or at least in 1M candles, which we could analyze whole behaviour).
My thoughts: as long as we are in downtrend channel, there will be no reversing of this trend. We still have quite a room onto holding support lines, especially those dating back to 2013-14, the same as BTC have some room to go down. As we know PPC is now performing as weaker asset then it was in previous bubble ~2013-2014, so we have to keep in mind, that rallies can be weaker and declines more powerful (as we see now - from ~10USD ATH to 0.59USD today), although it’s much more stronger than shitty ICOs or other pump&dump coins out there. But I must say, that PPC was quite remarkably stable from Q2-Q3 2018, without huge swings, unlike other coins.
I don’t trust bars because candles get formed into dojis or similar such things to get retail traders to buy in before they get liquidated. It just protects me to see the range only. I agree especially about missing the tick by tick as I trade pure direction as well.
We may be in a long trend, but its not something that will last through the end of the year. I believe we are very much near an important pivot, but the market is rather slow moving. Expecting a completion of the cup fractal in the next year(s).
I am holding the price at 13775 sat. all by myself. My buy order has been sitting there for a few days and is just 25% filled. Still 1505 PPC to go until it breaks.
At Bittrex, the price went lower yesterday, but traders there seeing my huge buy order at Poloniex forced the price to go back up immediately.
Holding strong!
Edit: Aaaaand it’s broken.
If the communitry rocks on and price declines further down to 1000 sat., I will go in with all my capital and build a wall bigger than you can even imagine
It should be the tail of the bear market now, the next time, if there is no trading volume, PPC may be deleted by the exchange. Then PPC is more difficult to trade.
I expect the top of the next crypto bubble in 2025, because the time in between the bubbles has doubled in the past: 2011->2013->2017 -> 2025
The reason for the doubling after each bubble is that people learn, so after each crash it takes longer until they forget.
— However, if Western gouvernments get more desperate and begin to confiscate bank accounts of political opponents, or if they let banks go bankrupt, it can go up any time. —
So the bottom of the bear market will be in about 2020 / 2021.
But the worst is already over. Now it is time to invest the first 10%-20% and keep 80%-90% to invest later when prices are even lower.
And I expect Peercoin to suffer less over the next two years than the top coins of the last bubble. Peercoin was at 65.000 satoshi, now it is 13.500 satoshi. Most coins lost more versus Bitcoin.
I don’t think so. They’ve left it alone for long enough. If it really ever gets to that point (which exchanges have not indicated it is) we would just move to a DEX which is preferable anyway.
Daily is looking for a potential pivot with the formation of a bull div. You will note the Kijun-sen line (red arrow) is going sideways, indicating the range of the longer period is slowing and resistance may be breaking. This is further supported by the weakening of the future cloud in the orange box.
Weekly still shows market valuation lagging and still waiting for pivot which should come from lower time frames first. We are looking at a 50 100 EMA cross (green and yellow) which might trigger a move up, albeit small. That is just based on past experience with valuation and EMAs.
Added bodies for these charts because I’m nice…not because I like them
Just out of curiosity, do anybody tried to calc ‘bottom’ in this market cycle?
DEXes aren’t good choice for now there is 0 liquidity on most of them. Crypto is still very much depending on centralized exchange liquidity, and for now it will.
I did calculate bottom but I will not post that kind of information here as that would be financial advice :).
I should have clarified above. No one is going to delist our project on a major exchange, volume or not. DEXs will be active when we have atomic swaps and liquidity across the entire crypto market.
