Wall Observer - The PPC Price Speculation Thread

Economics Trading & Exchanges
1

Hello Peercoiners,

welcome to the “Wall Observer” thread :slight_smile: Thought it could be cool to have this here too …

First some long/mid-term PPC/BTC charts:

All-Time chart at Vircurex (Since November 2012):

3 Month-Chart at Vircurex:

We can easily see that there was a turning point in early April 2013, when price rose from sub 0.001 levels to values betwen 0.001 and 0.003. Highest price at Vircurex was achieved at April 20, with 0.00329 BTC.

At BTC-E, PPC was introduced on April 6 (?). The price had a short bubble on the first days with values up to 0.00349, but then followed the price of Vircurex.

Now a short-term (1-Month) chart (BTC-E):

Last month was bearish for PPC, compared to BTC. It went from values around 0.003 to the actual price of ~ 0.0014. Nearly all alt-coins (except Novacoin, which is a PPC fork) have lost value in the past weeks, though. Probably this could relate to the recent multiple new alt-coin announcements at Bitcointalk, which drove some interest away from the established altcoins.

Compared to USD, as I remember, the PPC drop was not so dramatic, although the fluctuations due to BTC volatility were high. Actual PPC/USD price at Vircurex is around 0,20 USD. Good moment to buy, I think.

Are there PPC/USD charts anywhere?

Order books:

BTC-E:

Little buy wall at 0.00135 gives some support. No major ask walls. Up?

Vircurex:

Here, much lower volume and only a tiny 8 BTC “mini-wall” at 0.00135. Also here, no ask walls at all.

Vircurex PPC/USD (perhaps it will go away soon):

No real volume. Nearly every day there are some trades though.

Feel free to post your charts, analytics, predictions, wall pics (do they exist?) and other stuff.

2

Thanks for getting this started. The wall observer conversation is my favorite so this actually convinced me to join the forum.

I’ve noticed the price weakness lately indicates a lack of new buyers but I’ve been watching the block reward expecting it to go up significantly as miners drop off due to low profitability (dustcoin shows we’re at 75.91% of mining BTC) but so far it hasn’t happened. It appears that PPC miners are either more committed to PPC than buyers, or they’ve set their miners and forgot about them. Either way it seems strange since with this level of discrepancy they could get more PPC by mining BTC and then buying them.

3

Also I’ve been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can’t find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Although this is lower than it’s been I still ascribe all but a couple hundred thousand of the price to rampant speculation. The reason more of this has been evaporating is partly because of the mushrooming number of altcoins showing the more competitive environment we’re in and because I suspect PPC will be a very painful asset to hold during a downturn while it is still this small due to increasing block rewards with dropping hashing power. The stake rewards system caused me to call PPC the “rich get richer” coin but it appears that the compounding effect of downturns might make the opposite hold true as well?

4

Short-intermediate term I’m bearish but long term I think this comparison shows PPC’s ace in the hole so long as Sunny stays active and hopefully gets some help:

Scroll down and look at the activity in github:

Litecoin should be embarrassed.

5

Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator (“Fontas”) tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again :wink: But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental “buy” signal.

6

[quote=“calian, post:4, topic:106”]Short-intermediate term I’m bearish but long term I think this comparison shows PPC’s ace in the hole so long as Sunny stays active and hopefully gets some help:

Scroll down and look at the activity in github:

Litecoin should be embarrassed.[/quote]

good point

7

[quote=“d5000, post:5, topic:106”]Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator (“Fontas”) tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again :wink: But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental “buy” signal.[/quote]

This is one of the most accurate statements upon these forums. I totally agree with you.

8

[quote=“d5000, post:5, topic:106”]Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator (“Fontas”) tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again :wink: But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental “buy” signal.[/quote]

Agreed. A market price for a stock or commodity reflects the best guess as to its long-term value. PPC development is still continually on-going, but the lack of big news in the last few weeks has likely led some investors to cash out and go explore some of the numerous alt-coins that continually pop up. I would suspect that we will be fairly stable at this price level in the near-term, and perhaps even a bit lower if new features (like an easily unlocked minting wallet or a proper website with consistent branding elements) don’t materalize fast enough.

I also get the impression that more-so than other alt-currencies, PPCoin’s early adopters are not as eager to cash out. That would be a good sign that the people holding the coins are invested in developing the financial infrastructure required to support a currency, rather than realizing short-term capital gains and moving on to the next alt currency.

9

Since this is the “wall observer” thread I think it’s appropriate to ask how we can get the equivalent of bitcoinity/clarkmoody/bitcoinium/mtgoxlive/btccharts coded for PPC? Is the proofofstake.com guy here? Maybe he could do it.

10

What is the current PPC inflation rate? It seems like it’s insanely high right now (5% per month or more). I don’t know exactly where to see this but it looks like there are over 19 MM coins now and it wasn’t that long ago there were only 18 MM.

11

As I tried to answer your question, I saw that at BTER there is a strange PPC rally which drove price there to nearly 0.002 again. The other exchanges stay at 0.0014. Arbitrage opportunity? (Edit: The volume is extremely low there, so it might have no significance at all).

I thought first it could be related to possible fiat withdrawal problems at BTER but it doesn’t seem so because other cryptos have normal values there.

[s]Now to the inflation question:

  • 19091421.341173 coins created until now (source: cryptocoinexplorer.com)
  • ~ 405 coins per block reward / 10 min (source: coinchoose.com)
  • daily increase of about 2430 coins/h * 24 = 58320 (PoW only)
  • 30 day increase: 1749600 coins = ~ 9.1 % + 0.1 % stake minting? = ~ 9.2 %

Seems a very high inflation rate,[/s] (misleading, so edited) but Litecoin is 2x older than PPC and has about 5 % monthly inflation rate at the moment. Even Bitcoin has nearly 1 % / month. Actually we Peercoiners are all early adopters :slight_smile:

Taking into account the inflation, then there perhaps were not so many investors cashing out this month but miners selling with a slightly dropping buying interest drove the price down.

12

[quote=“d5000, post:11, topic:106”]Now to the inflation question:

  • 19091421.341173 coins created until now (source: cryptocoinexplorer.com)
  • ~ 405 coins per block reward / 10 min (source: coinchoose.com)
  • daily increase of about 2430 coins/h * 24 = 58320 (PoW only)
  • 30 day increase: 1749600 coins = ~ 9.1 % + 0.1 % stake minting? = ~ 9.2 %[/quote]

I probably should not give out the PPC secrets, but since we are all PPC enthusiasts let’s take a look at the real PPC economy:
I have read somewhere that PPC is intended to have 2 PoS blocks for each Pow block. The PoS blocks give rewards 1% per year in coin days, but the reward only goes to the block finder, therefore PoS will never really get to the 1% across the network as only the block finder gets the reward.
So let’s examine reward blocks: PoS less than 1 PPC now and PoW around 400PPC so I took a quick one day snapshot of the following 2 blocks:
Timestamp Total PPCs
5/29/2013 23:24 19094362
5/28/2013 23:21 19082812
For 1 day of combined PoS & PoW blocks a total of 11,550 was created
30 day total for this snapshot: 346,500 gives us 1.81% per month

and this is the main reason why people undervalue PPC, they don’t understand the PoS&PoW blockchain concept and base their math on Bitcoin block creation:
2562430 which gives them 108,000 and then the crazy PPC counts: 40062430 = 1,728,000 plus the crazy monthly inflation of 1%/12 of 19M coins. And that’s how PPC costs are low on the exchanges.

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That’s really interesting! Thanks for the explanation!

14

Just noticed something interesting. Clark Moody has a PPC donate address on his bitcoin charting service. So far he’s received just over 9 PPC. If PPC trading volume picks up do you think we can convince him to create a PPC livechart? http://ppc.cryptocoinexplorer.com/address/PQFNEjzKwwZBYXLU3ed2W7Xi2x76XK8L1S

15

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I’m working on making longer term graphs for it.

16

I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I’m right here)

17

[quote=“d5000, post:16, topic:106”]I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I’m right here)[/quote]

Agreed. Another part of the problem is that trading volumes are well below what they were in mid-to-late April, combined with a massive 100k sell wall I saw pop up yesterday. It’s re-positioned at a few different levels, which I’m thinking might indicate a large holder is trying to drive the price down to purchase more. With such low trade volumes, those kind of ask walls can cause serious fluctuations in value.

18

This is from the price speculation thread on bitcointalk. Hopefully the conversation will move over here.

PPC does not have the lowest inflation rate. Where do you get that number?

Here are the facts I have. PPC has out inflated LTC and hasn’t been around nearly as long. It produces around 411 coins per block. Bitcoin is at 25 coins per block. Litecoin is at 50 coins per block. Mincoin is at 2 coins per block. As a result of epic growth PPcoin has 19 million coins in circulation to LTC’s 18 million.

At this point in time it’s not really a big deal because 19 million is low, but it’s not the lowest inflation rate of all alt-coins based on the numbers I’m working with. I don’t know where you get the values of 20% - 30% inflation, and how do you figure it’s the lowest?

I know it’s your coin so you’re going to promote it but what we are seeing in the market are signals of a period of high inflation, and market cap shrinkage, which isn’t a bad thing but don’t convince people to invest heavy fiat into this coin when it’s rise is truly uncertain. I await the figures backing up your claims.

…

More miners should raise the difficulty which should slow the inflation rate and that could happen as soon as ASICS ship.

I’m mining PPC. I predict someday each PPC will be worth $1 and when I mine I think of each PPC as $1. I also think the price of PPC will eventually go up, but the price of PPC will be correlated with the market cap just like it is with all coins and only when the market cap is brought up to a level above the total amount of PPC in circulation will we see PPC price at $1 and up.

This would mean PPC needs a market cap of $19 million or more. LTC has a market cap if $50 million but is selling at $2-3, Bitcoin has a market cap of over a billion and is selling at $100-130, let’s see if PPC gets to a dollar when it’s market cap is over $20 million, I predict that is what it will take and that is possible but probably not going to happen anytime soon. The only way it will happen is for you and others to set up sites where people can buy PPC directly with USD, not buy it with BTC or LTC. Then there has to be many sites set up for people to spend PPC. Finally there has to be some job sites for people to earn PPC.

Current PPC market cap is $ 3,137,639 and it just lost -7.97%. Unless the trend changes I expect the price to keep going down until a development in PPC changes the trend.

…

Supply is high and demand is low. I think this can change over a period of 6 months but the longer supply increases the bigger the market cap will have to be for each coin to be worth $1. So while I know PPC is worth something, and worth more than 0.003 in the long term and definitely worth more than it’s going for right now, I don’t know that it will ever reach $1.Since the poll is asking where I think it will be in the next 45 days I think right now there are signals that the price has to go down further before the slow climb back up so I think for another few weeks to a month we will see it dip down to 0.0010 and then 0.0007 and from there it will go back up. Because of this, if you’re thinking about PPC as a short term investment it’s a very bad time to buy PPC. Wait another couple of weeks when supply is increased even further and then buy as much as you can while it’s at around 0.0007, if you buy right now you wont get the maximum amount of profits as a speculator.[/quote]

I agree with much of Luckybit’s read of the market. I think he’s unaware that PPC targets 30 minutes per PoW block rather than every 10 minutes like many of the others. This is probably part of why Sunny says it has a lower inflation rate than most. Also 2 million PPC were produced in the first day. Obviously there hasn’t been a day like that since. Nonetheless I think the downward trend may continue for a while. If you’re trying to make a profit, not only does PPC need to beat fiat, it has to beat holding BTC and that’s a tough thing to do until BTC reaches market saturation. I think there will come a day where the massive energy costs of the bitcoin mining machine cause its costs to exceed a more efficient currency like PPCoin. Hopefully the market factors it in well in advance of that point. However we’re still a long ways from that scenario right now.

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Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I’m working on making longer term graphs for it.[/quote]

gliss I like your site. How do you decide which ones to track though? cryptocoincharts.info has a bunch that you don’t so far though you seem to have most of the main ones. Maybe make a second page for all the ridiculously obscure coins so they don’t annoy people loading the main page.

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Market report for the end of sunday:

Bids at BTC-E continue growing (for now, 320 BTC), and asks are slowly declining. Bid/ask relation is still very low. But I still think we are at the (short-term) bottom or near.

Walls: 50.000 bid wall at 0.00116, 33.000 ask wall at 0.00128. Last trade BTC-E: 0.00124.