I don’t know if I can agree with that. I could be wrong but I think it works like this:
Step 1
BTCUSD goes up, so people sell there PPC to buy BTC. PPCBTC ratio dropping creates bigger supply of floating peercoins and downward pressure on PPCUSD. We see the same kind of thing for other coins as well, altcoins sell during the BTCUSD bullish rally, as all crypto currency enthusiast scrambles for increasing there bitcoins position, liquidating whatever other assets they hold on their hands.
Step 2
An increase in BTCUSD creates headlines in mainstream media. The imagination in the general public is sparked by sci-fi sounding technologies, that “only Marc Andreesen, and the likes of him seem to understand”. As BTCUSD creates all-time high, everyone makes money. The euphoria creeps in and when it suddenly dawns on people that it is “impossible to loose money” on bitcoins, because it is “different this time, because its about buying into the ‘new financial system’” people will be panic buying, afraid that will never be able to get coins as cheap.
Step 3
Older crypto currency enthusiasts have been there and done that quite a few times already. Seeing the price sky rocket, they take profit and diverse their holdings into altcoins. They know, that altcoins is a leveraged play in bitcoins, because altcoins can appreciate as only “penny-coins” can and you never know if the coin is going to make it into the big league or even replace Bitcoin.
Step 4
This time “everybody knows what bitcoins is”, but in the media there is talk about the “new financial system” and “decentralized stock and derivatives markets”. The rally is fueled be the excitement and big money will find the “next generation cryptos” as the most exiting play. I believe that marketwatch will write little about XxxCoins and more about things like etherium, mastercoin etc. This is where Peershares can shine and take spotlight.
Step 5
BTCUSD finally crashes, at least 50% from its high. Then rebounds in a few hours/days and then crashes again. The major correction causes panic and everyone starts to liquidate their holdings. Since there are no circuit breaks as in the stock market, the market sell-off as fast as and violent as they can. This is part of the free market. Everything sells off and the only good currency to hold at this point is USD.
Right now we’re still in the BTCUSD going up phase and therefor hedge funds and other professional traders are un-interested in peercoins. People who really believe in Peercoin have already bought all the peercoins they can afford and the only participants are only sellers in the market (note the difference to other new coins, that are still in the early distribution phase). Well… there are also those with a longer timeframe in mind, welcoming this opportunity to establish a greater position in peercoins. I belong to this group. This people accumulate slowly and are “reading the tape carefully”.
What “we” are looking for, is a jigsaw like price pattern where the price becomes very volatile, the volume increases and a bottom is created. The thing is, we could have one of those legs set already:
http://imgur.com/IrZMbWz
Technical analysis is not about predicting the future it is about calculating betting odds, i.e. limiting downside risk and maximizing return.
Marketing
I definitely think that Peershares should be marketed, targeting not only the “usual crypto crowd” but actually the established financial industry. Journalists writing for marketwatch, Marc Andreesen, these kind of people. Or why not trying to get the attention from the under banked people of the world, that actually could benefit the most from this technology? I think this is our target audience (not the trollbox in whatever exchange or IRC channel just to pump prices). My guess is that the Peershares team already have these kinds of plans. (Right?)
