On March 4th, I sent this PM to Cybnate who can verify it, which says the same thing you did:
I kept starting at the “Recent posts” with the subject line: Auroracoin and I began worrying that we were helping to promote Auroracoin indirectly for people who kept seeing it posted with multiple replies.
Part of the recent drop in Peercoin has been people cashing out some of BTC/PPC/LTC and buying into the Auroracoin concept.
I fully believe they are going to go through a GOX-type realization that they’ve been scammed into chasing a dream.
Right now, with Auroracoin at $50-$60/coin, and the “airdrop” giving people 31 coins each in Iceland, even if it WERE true, you’re handing $1700 worth of value to every single Islandic person.
When they walk out onto the street and look around, they realize there is nothing to use it on, and rather than hope for the future, they’ll dump it on the market or give their share to their nephew, son, brother, whomever who will buy it and give them cents on the dollar to dump it.
Auroracoin by it’s blue-printed design is destined to fail.
However, I believe Auroracoin was setup to be more sinister. The developer probably figured out that he’d sell a coin, with a great story, and a great pre-mine. Wait until the price rose up enough, dump it, and run away with the coins.
The problem is that Auroracoin became a little “too popular”, so now the original developer is probably trying to figure out some way of making it work, but since the airdrop infrastructure still isn’t really there, it’s not going to work.
So in the end Auroracoin has the option of:
a) Failing really bad
b) Failing even worse
c) Failing completely
I fully expect there to be some sort of “ok, the airdrop is delayed” or “we’re revising the blueprint” or “ok, we’re forking” or “ok, we’re doing this or doing that”… just to keep the coin alive as it coughs up its own blood.
Auroracoin is dead. But people are so busy chasing a dream, they are willing to sell their Peercoins (and another coin, with the exception of Bitcoin) to chase it.
There is a 5% chance I’m wrong here. Probably 95% chance I’m very close to what we’re going to see.