Lesson: Contrarian Trading

Economics Trading & Exchanges
1

Manipulation, greed and panic: How to compete and profit from it.

In todays world manipulation done by the “elite” is leading to greedy buys and panic sells. And everybody who is dreaming to be millionaire by owning cryptos can loose everything. Nearby: why do you want to be a millionaire, what is the reason for this?

I’m a socialist, and doing this for human beings (and wild animals and plants). If you are a millionaire already, or want to get rich quick, stay away.

  1. Choose real values as assets
    For my lesson I choose Bitcoins and PPcoins as my assets. I have no preference between the two. I really believe in these assets, like I would into gold and silver, the own house, or company shares. I know its risks, and its advantages. If you have no trust, then do not own them.

  2. Choose a ratio in between the assets
    Because I have no preference, I choose to own 50% of my assets in BTC, 50% in PPC. On many different assets the independent ones should have equal weight. Don’t change the choosen weight of one asset without a very good reason.

  3. Trade
    Trade ONLY the way that you get closer to the weight target of 2). You can use timing, meaning you can wait for larger price jumps before you execute. If you miss this good trading point, you have missed an opportunity only, but you have not lost your assets.

For some time I will do real trades. You will see how I will gain value out of manipulation, greed and panic. Yourself must withstand it, this is no easy task at the beginning. Start with small values if you wish, this is one very big advantage of cryptos. You can try to reproduce this strategy, and compete me in timing. If you have questions then you can ask. Convinced trend traders please stay away.

In the next post I will list all trades done by me. I trade on vircurex for this. Because I don’t want to influence the price, I will not give any estimation, and my trades will be filled into the next post AFTER execution.

I will modify this post if new important information needs to be added.

2

My Trades
[tt]
Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-09-29 01:57:46 init - - 4.93166438 1155.82162320 0.00180 70% 30%
[/tt][hr]
[tt]2013-09-29 04:13:26 buy 396.98890000 0.00180100
2013-09-29 04:13:36 buy 16.53175000 0.00180100 4.18691370 1568.51523190 0.00190 58% 42%
2013-09-29 12:28:51 buy 3.02294894 0.00190100
2013-09-29 16:10:56 buy 52.08333333 0.00191999
2013-09-29 16:10:57 buy 37.91666667 0.00192000
2013-09-29 16:11:34 buy 1.04248033 0.00192000
2013-09-29 16:11:34 buy 49.91000000 0.00192312 3.91038314 1712.20271033 0.00192 54% 46%
2013-09-29 21:03:36 buy 90.00000000 0.00193100 3.73659314 1802.02271033 0.00192 52% 48%
[/tt][hr]
[tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-09-30 01:49:47 buy 1.00361300 0.00196100
2013-09-30 04:58:01 buy 9.00000000 0.00198100
2013-09-30 04:58:08 buy 8.98190000 0.00197100 3.69909274 1820.97025231 0.00195 51% 49%
2013-09-30 05:13:26 buy 7.87830938 0.00196100
2013-09-30 05:16:26 buy 9.00000000 0.00195100 3.66608438 1837.81480508 0.00194 51% 49%
2013-09-30 06:44:18 buy 8.98190000 0.00196100
2013-09-30 06:45:31 buy 9.00000000 0.00195100
2013-09-30 06:45:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00193100
2013-09-30 06:45:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00191100 3.59633388 1873.72474128 0.00192 50% 50%
2013-09-30 09:40:42 sell 1.00000000 0.00197000
2013-09-30 09:40:42 sell 1.00000000 0.00198000
2013-09-30 09:40:42 sell 9.00000000 0.00198890
2013-09-30 09:40:45 sell 9.00000000 0.00199700
2013-09-30 09:47:11 sell 9.00000000 0.00204900 3.65448146 1844.72474128 0.00202 50% 50%
2013-09-30 10:02:07 sell 9.00000000 0.00206890
2013-09-30 10:02:07 sell 9.00000000 0.00207900
2013-09-30 10:02:07 sell 9.00000000 0.00208900
2013-09-30 10:07:09 sell 9.00000000 0.00209900 3.72935452 1808.72474128 0.00210 50% 50%
2013-09-30 10:17:54 buy 4.82549465 0.00201100
2013-09-30 13:01:59 buy 4.17450535 0.00201100
2013-09-30 13:13:46 buy 9.00000000 0.00200100 3.69324653 1826.68874129 0.00205 50% 50%
2013-09-30 16:14:51 sell 9.00000000 0.00212900
2013-09-30 16:14:56 sell 9.00000000 0.00214900
2013-09-30 16:15:05 sell 8.05997000 0.00216900
2013-09-30 17:50:14 sell 0.94003000 0.00216900
2013-09-30 18:01:10 sell 8.99950000 0.00217900
2013-09-30 18:10:55 sell 9.00000000 0.00218900
2013-09-30 18:11:06 sell 9.00000000 0.00219400
2013-09-30 18:11:10 sell 9.00000000 0.00219900 3.82984372 1763.68924129 0.00215 50% 50%
[/tt][hr][tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-01 00:08:32 buy 8.98190000 0.00213100
2013-10-01 00:13:14 buy 8.98190000 0.00211100
2013-10-01 00:21:18 buy 8.88625235 0.00209100
2013-10-01 00:21:21 buy 0.11374765 0.00209100
2013-10-01 00:21:21 buy 9.00000000 0.00207100
2013-10-01 00:21:21 buy 9.00000000 0.00205100 3.73582552 1808.56311370 0.00215 49.0% 51.0%
2013-10-01 02:35:38 sell 2.28253178 0.00212900
2013-10-01 02:36:29 sell 5.71746822 0.00212900
2013-10-01 02:37:59 sell 8.00000000 0.00214900 3.76998108 1792.56311370 0.00214 49.6% 50.4%
2013-10-01 03:53:26 sell 8.00000000 0.00214900
2013-10-01 03:53:26 sell 8.00000000 0.00216900
2013-10-01 03:53:27 sell 8.00000000 0.00218900
2013-10-01 03:53:27 sell 8.00000000 0.00220900
2013-10-01 03:53:27 sell 8.00000000 0.00222900
2013-10-01 03:53:27 sell 8.00000000 0.00224900 3.87532200 1744.56311370 0.00215 50.8% 49.2%
2013-10-01 04:42:13 buy 9.00000000 0.00217100
2013-10-01 04:43:03 buy 9.00000000 0.00218100 3.83615400 1762.52711370 0.00215 50.3% 49.7%
2013-10-01 04:58:04 buy 0.49040382 0.00215100
2013-10-01 08:16:34 buy 2.00000000 0.00216100
2013-10-01 08:16:35 buy 2.00000000 0.00215200 3.82647315 1767.00853672 0.00213 50.4% 49.6%
2013-10-01 08:44:51 buy 4.00000000 0.00214200
2013-10-01 08:44:51 buy 9.00000000 0.00213100
2013-10-01 08:44:51 buy 9.00000000 0.00211100
2013-10-01 08:44:51 buy 9.00000000 0.00209100
2013-10-01 08:44:52 buy 9.00000000 0.00207100
2013-10-01 08:44:52 buy 9.00000000 0.00205100
2013-10-01 08:44:52 buy 9.00000000 0.00203100
2013-10-01 08:44:52 buy 9.00000000 0.00201100 3.68743215 1833.87453672 0.00214 48.4% 51.6%
2013-10-01 10:17:28 sell 7.99950000 0.00212900
2013-10-01 10:33:52 sell 7.99990000 0.00212900
2013-10-01 10:36:38 sell 8.00000000 0.00212900
2013-10-01 10:36:54 sell 8.00000000 0.00213900
2013-10-01 10:37:12 sell 8.00000000 0.00214900
2013-10-01 10:37:13 sell 8.00000000 0.00215900
2013-10-01 10:37:13 sell 8.00000000 0.00216900
2013-10-01 10:37:26 sell 8.00000000 0.00218900 3.82469182 1769.87513672 0.00218 49.8% 50.2%
2013-10-01 11:55:47 buy 1.00000000 0.00215100
2013-10-01 11:55:55 buy 2.00000000 0.00214200
2013-10-01 11:56:02 buy 4.00000000 0.00213200
2013-10-01 13:07:44 sell 1.00000000 0.00214900
2013-10-01 13:09:48 sell 0.99999999 0.00215900
2013-10-01 13:14:01 buy 1.00000000 0.00213101
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 1.00000000 0.00213100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 2.00000000 0.00212100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 4.00000000 0.00211100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00209100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00207100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00205100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00203100
2013-10-01 13:14:57 buy 9.00000000 0.00201100 3.70478520 1827.75513673 0.00208 49.4% 50.6%
2013-10-01 13:42:51 sell 1.00000000 0.00204900
2013-10-01 14:36:53 buy 1.00000000 0.00203100
2013-10-01 14:36:53 buy 2.00000000 0.00201100
2013-10-01 14:50:32 buy 4.00000000 0.00199100
2013-10-01 14:50:32 buy 9.00000000 0.00197100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00195100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00193100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00191110
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00189100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00187100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00185100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00183100
2013-10-01 14:50:33 buy 9.00000000 0.00181100 3.53964121 1914.57913673 0.00206 47.3% 52.7%
2013-10-01 15:02:52 sell 8.00000000 0.00204900
2013-10-01 15:02:54 sell 8.00000000 0.00205900
2013-10-01 15:38:25 sell 8.00000000 0.00206900
2013-10-01 15:55:23 sell 8.00000000 0.00204900
2013-10-01 15:55:23 sell 8.00000000 0.00205900
2013-10-01 15:55:24 sell 8.00000000 0.00206900
2013-10-01 15:58:15 sell 24.00000000 0.00207899 3.68807154 1842.57913673 0.00205 49.4% 50.6%
2013-10-01 16:05:21 sell 1.19212618 0.00207899
2013-10-01 16:32:19 buy 1.00000000 0.00203100
2013-10-01 16:38:27 sell 6.80787382 0.00206900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00208900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00210900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00212900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00214900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00216900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00218900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00220900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00222900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00224900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00226900
2013-10-01 16:38:28 sell 8.00000000 0.00228900
2013-10-01 16:39:48 sell 8.00000000 0.00230900
2013-10-01 16:39:48 sell 8.00000000 0.00232900
2013-10-01 16:39:48 sell 8.00000000 0.00234900
2013-10-01 16:39:48 sell 8.00000000 0.00236900
2013-10-01 16:39:48 sell 8.00000000 0.00238900 3.98859020 1707.57713673 0.00205 53.3% 46.7%
2013-10-01 17:11:17 buy 79.99990000 0.00212893 3.81827602 1787.41703693 0.00210 50.4% 49.6%
2013-10-01 17:27:26 buy 1.00000000 0.00213100
2013-10-01 17:34:17 buy 1.82895000 0.00211100
2013-10-01 17:34:18 buy 0.17105000 0.00211100
2013-10-01 17:34:34 buy 1.82151038 0.00209100
2013-10-01 18:24:53 buy 2.17404000 0.00209100
2013-10-01 18:28:02 buy 8.98190000 0.00207100
2013-10-01 18:32:39 buy 3.15807000 0.00205100
2013-10-01 18:47:39 sell 1.00000000 0.00214900
2013-10-01 18:47:44 sell 2.00000000 0.00216900
2013-10-01 18:48:50 sell 4.00000000 0.00218900
2013-10-01 18:52:12 sell 8.00000000 0.00220900
2013-10-01 19:46:39 sell 8.00000000 0.00222900
2013-10-01 19:46:39 sell 8.00000000 0.00224900
2013-10-01 19:46:39 sell 8.00000000 0.00226900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00228900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00230900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00232900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00234900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00236900
2013-10-01 19:46:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00238900 3.97725437 1719.51428627 0.00240 49.1% 50.9%
[/tt][hr][tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-01 23:48:48 sell 7.00000000 0.00238900
2013-10-02 00:30:53 sell 7.00000000 0.00238900
2013-10-02 00:39:57 sell 3.10982043 0.00238900
2013-10-02 01:05:00 buy 0.97044162 0.00233100
2013-10-02 01:05:05 buy 0.51292894 0.00233100
2013-10-02 01:06:52 buy 0.25738445 0.00233100
2013-10-02 01:07:00 buy 0.12915653 0.00233100
2013-10-02 01:29:38 buy 0.06480833 0.00233100
2013-10-02 01:34:53 buy 0.06527670 0.00233100
2013-10-02 02:20:49 sell 7.00000000 0.00250000
2013-10-02 02:21:35 sell 35.00000000 0.00250000 4.11817604 1662.40046245 0.00250 49.8% 50.2%
2013-10-02 02:48:12 sell 1.00000000 0.00248900
2013-10-02 02:48:12 sell 2.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-02 02:48:16 sell 1.99960000 0.00252900
2013-10-02 02:48:21 sell 2.00030000 0.00252900
2013-10-02 02:51:12 sell 7.00000000 0.00254900
2013-10-02 02:52:56 sell 7.00000000 0.00256900 4.17151791 1641.40056245 0.00257 49.7% 50.3%
2013-10-02 03:11:56 sell 7.00000000 0.00258900
2013-10-02 03:13:12 sell 7.00000000 0.00260900
2013-10-02 03:56:46 sell 7.00000000 0.00262900
2013-10-02 03:56:46 sell 7.00000000 0.00264900 4.24470327 1613.40056245 0.00262 50.1% 49.9%
2013-10-02 05:28:07 buy 8.00000000 0.00255100
2013-10-02 05:28:07 buy 8.00000000 0.00254100
2013-10-02 05:28:07 buy 8.00000000 0.00253100
2013-10-02 05:28:08 buy 8.00000000 0.00252100
2013-10-02 05:28:12 buy 8.00000000 0.00251100
2013-10-02 05:28:16 buy 2.50792000 0.00250100
2013-10-02 05:37:34 buy 5.49208000 0.00250100
2013-10-02 05:37:38 buy 5.48100000 0.00249100
2013-10-02 05:42:11 buy 2.51386000 0.00249100
2013-10-02 05:43:03 buy 7.99990000 0.00247100 4.08377234 1677.26733293 0.00246 49.7% 50.3%
2013-10-02 05:56:07 buy 7.96790000 0.00245100
2013-10-02 05:58:18 buy 0.99800000 0.00243100
2013-10-02 05:58:19 buy 0.99800082 0.00243100
2013-10-02 06:39:44 sell 7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-02 06:50:11 sell 7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-02 06:51:17 sell 7.00000000 0.00252900
2013-10-02 07:09:47 sell 7.00000000 0.00254900
2013-10-02 07:49:06 sell 7.00000000 0.00256900
2013-10-02 08:22:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00258900
2013-10-02 08:24:59 sell 7.00000000 0.00260900
2013-10-02 08:26:39 sell 7.00000000 0.00262900
2013-10-02 08:27:06 sell 7.00000000 0.00264900
2013-10-02 10:20:09 buy 7.99990000 0.00243100
2013-10-02 10:20:28 buy 8.00000000 0.00241100
2013-10-02 10:20:47 buy 7.99990000 0.00239100
2013-10-02 10:20:47 buy 8.00000000 0.00237100
2013-10-02 10:21:05 buy 7.91999543 0.00235100
2013-10-02 10:21:39 buy 0.08000457 0.00235100
2013-10-02 10:21:40 buy 7.91999543 0.00233100
2013-10-02 10:22:49 buy 0.08000457 0.00233100
2013-10-02 10:22:49 buy 7.91999543 0.00231100
2013-10-02 10:23:12 buy 0.08000457 0.00231100
2013-10-02 10:23:12 buy 8.00000000 0.00229100
2013-10-02 10:23:12 buy 8.00000000 0.00227100
2013-10-02 10:23:13 buy 8.00000000 0.00225100
2013-10-02 10:23:13 buy 7.91999543 0.00223100
2013-10-02 10:24:00 buy 0.08000457 0.00223100
2013-10-02 10:24:00 buy 7.91999543 0.00221100
2013-10-02 10:24:18 buy 0.08000457 0.00221100
2013-10-02 10:25:27 buy 8.00000000 0.00219100
2013-10-02 10:25:27 buy 8.00000000 0.00217100
2013-10-02 10:25:27 buy 8.00000000 0.00215100
2013-10-02 10:26:52 buy 8.00000000 0.00213100
2013-10-02 10:26:52 buy 8.00000000 0.00211100
2013-10-02 16:08:48 sell 7.00000000 0.00266900
2013-10-02 16:08:48 sell 7.00000000 0.00268900 3.94962937 1745.93910640 0.00246 47.9% 52.1%
2013-10-02 17:56:55 sell 3.13462201 0.00248900
2013-10-02 19:51:45 sell 3.86488000 0.00248900
2013-10-02 19:54:08 sell 7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-02 23:35:57 sell 7.00000000 0.00252900 4.00221177 1724.93960439 0.00240 49.2% 50.8%
[/tt][hr]
[tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 1.00000000 0.00234900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 2.00000000 0.00236900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 4.00000000 0.00238900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 8.00000000 0.00240900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 7.00000000 0.00242900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 7.00000000 0.00244900
2013-10-03 14:11:18 sell 7.00000000 0.00246900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00246900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00248900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00252900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00254900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00256900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00258900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00260900
2013-10-03 14:11:19 sell 7.00000000 0.00262900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00264900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00266900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00268900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00270900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00272900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00274900
2013-10-03 14:12:02 sell 7.00000000 0.00276900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00278900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00280900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00282900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00284900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00286900
2013-10-03 14:12:03 sell 7.00000000 0.00288900
2013-10-03 14:13:14 sell 7.00000000 0.00290900
2013-10-03 14:13:14 sell 7.00000000 0.00292900 4.54190640 1520.93960439 0.00236 55.9% 44.1%
2013-10-03 16:09:31 buy 8.00000000 0.00240100
2013-10-03 16:09:48 buy 8.00000000 0.00239100
2013-10-03 16:10:45 buy 8.00000000 0.00238100
2013-10-03 16:11:31 buy 8.00000000 0.00237100
2013-10-03 16:11:34 buy 0.38388600 0.00236100
2013-10-03 16:13:44 buy 7.61611400 0.00236100
2013-10-03 16:35:12 buy 160.00000000 0.00242000 4.05946641 1720.53960440 0.00238 49.8% 50.2%
[/tt]
This post ran out of space, so for next day details see post #7:
http://www.ppcointalk.org/index.php?topic=528.msg4464#msg4464

My Wealth
Because I have no preference for one coin, have no preference for any real asset I own, I will calculate my inital wealth and intermittent wealth in both PPC and BTC. And no, Dollars or Euros are no assets for me, there’s no reason why I should calculate the wealth in fiat money. Looks good, but makes no sense.
[tt]
Date Time BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_wealth PPC_wealth gain
2013-09-29 01:57:46 4.93166438 1155.82162320 0.00180 7.01214330 3895.63516764 -
2013-09-29 21:03:36 3.73659314 1802.02271033 0.00192 7.19647674 3748.16497075 2.324%
2013-09-30 18:11:10 3.82984372 1763.68924129 0.00215 7.62177559 3545.01190176 0.206%
2013-10-01 19:46:40 3.97725437 1719.51428627 0.00240 8.10408866 3376.70360710 0.598%
2013-10-02 23:35:57 4.00221177 1724.93960439 0.00240 8.14206682 3392.52784189 0.469%
2013-10-03 16:35:12 4.05946641 1720.53960440 0.00240 8.22283918 3426.18299190 0.992%
2013-10-04 23:58:20 5.25114522 1337.16048899 0.00400 10.59978718 2649.94679399 -0,367%
2013-10-05 23:43:27 4.99617018 1434.11029585 0.00345 9.94385070 2882.27556541 1,038%
2013-10-06 23:33:47 5.09171915 1412.97349526 0.00355 10.10777506 2847.26057977 0.215%
[/tt]

Legend

Date Time
Date and time of a trade. For ease of use I simply take the time stamp from vircurex, it’s not my local time.

Type
buy for buying PPC and selling BTC
sell for selling PPC and buying BTC

PPC_Quantity
how many PPC have been bought or sold

BTC_Price
The exchange rate of the trade

BTC_Balance
how many BTC I own after the trade

PPC_Balance
how many PPC I own after the trade

Spot
Current market price from btc-e and vircurex, it’s an estimation, accuracy is not necessary here

BTC_weight
How many BTC do I hold, relative in %, after the trade. It’s calculated this:
BTC_weight = BTC_Balance / ( all values )
70% = 4.93166438 BTC / ( 4.93166438 BTC + 0.00180 BTC/PPC * 1155.82162320 PPC )

PPC_weight
How many PPC do I hold, relative in %, after the trade. It’s calculated this:
PPC_weight = PPC_balance / ( all values )
PPC_weight = 100% - BTC_weight
30% = 100% - 70%

BTC_wealth
My total wealth measured in BTC

PPC_wealth
My total wealth measured in PPC

gain
My increase in coins to the previous day. I compare my balances of the two adjacent days with the mean value of both spot prices. I’m not yet absolutely sure, that this is a correct calculation.

This is a super simple spreadsheet, use the standardized ODF (Open Document Format) for this, computed with LibreOffice for example.

How to calculate the maximum amount of PPC that I can buy or sell at a special price?
PPC_ToBuy = 50% * ( BTC_Balance / price - PPC_Balance )
792 PPC = 50% * ( 4.93166438 BTC / ( 0.00180 BTC/PPC ) - 1155.82162320 ) (maximum buy)
963 PPC = 50% * ( 4.93166438 BTC / ( 0.00160 BTC/PPC ) - 1155.82162320 ) (maximum buy)
-85 PPC = 50% * ( 4.93166438 BTC / ( 0.00500 BTC/PPC ) - 1155.82162320 ) (maximum sell)

I will modify this post if new important information needs to be added.

3

Some hours after my start I now have (with the last small panic sell) reached the point with the target distribution of 50% of the assets in BTC and 50% in PPC, see time stamp 2013-09-30 06:45:57

By simply dividing my balances, I can calculate my internal spot price. Below it I can buy some PPC, above it I can sell some. At this point in time it calculates like this:
BTC_Balance/PPC_Balance = 3.59633388/1873.72474128 = 0.00192

I invite all manipulators to destroy my strategy and make me look bad :open_mouth:

4

There is a systemic risk in this strategy. If one of the asset components (PPC or BTC) go down toward zero and never comes back again (doesn’t have to reach zero but reaching zero is a possible scenario), your will beforced to buy the losing component again and again, reducing your entire asset value toward zero (and totally losing it if one of the component dies).

5

You are completely right. Every asset has it’s risk. Gold can be stolen, an encrypted crypto wallet not. A successfull company can fail in short time, if a corrupt or unprofessional managing board does wrong decisions, gold can not. This is the reason for spreading the property over several real assets with hopefully different risks.

My constraint does not mean, that you must invest, you can wait as long as you want, and clarify the situation. But you must not run with the herd. My last trades have been with many small limit orders. This way I keep the spread myself. But I also can wait on large price jumps and buy/sell against a “wall” at once.

6

Goog morning. Nice run. Now it’s time to explain why it can be better to wait on large price jumps.

The last three days I have profited from large volatility around a spot, as you can see in my order execution list. In the last run, while all my small orders have been executed all the way up the run, my gain in coins is very low. It had been better to have no limit orders and wait on this jump. The direction does not matter, if you have no preference.

Can you really make money in them [stocks] without taking a serious risk? Yes indeed if you can find enough of them to make a diversified group, and if you don’t lose patience if they fail to advance soon after you buy them. Sometimes the patience needed may appear quite considerable. [But] most of the bargain issues in our experience have not taken that long to show good profits.
Benjamin Graham

The wait on large price jumps has many advantages. You can leave the exchange in between the jumps, so not beeing burned in an exchange shutdown. You have time for your real live, doing more reasonable things. You can make your holiday. If you are lucky, you had a price run or crash all along your absence. If there was a price spike, you lost only an opportunity, not your assets. You will miss many opportunities, but they are coming again and again.

7

What is your goal here? To hedge currency risk/volatility? To gain purchasing power? To ensure you’re invested in the long term cryptocurrency leader? I agree on your choice of coins, but can’t possibly convince myself to hold equal value in PPC at this time. There just isn’t the infrastructure and I’m uncertain if proof of stake will be integrated into a BIP at some point. If so PPC could really suffer if it hasn’t established a market niche for itself.

I’ll be interested if your strategy could result in a long term increase in absolute quantity of both types of currency.

8

My goal is a riskless rise in total wealth. I want a gain in coins. I wouldn’t compare it with hedging, because I own the real assets. Hedging is like an insurance or option on an asset. I don’t need this, because contrarian trading is doing the risk balance automatically.

It’s on your choice to take another target balance, perhaps 80% in BTC and 20% in PPC. This makes the calculation moderately more sophisticated.

The contrarian strategy makes this impossible. I can buy the falling asset, and sell the rising one. You can see the movement of my two assets, BTC balance is rising, PPC balance is dropping.

If you own gold and it rises heavily, you should sell all or part of the gain of your gold. Nobody expects you to hold more gold even after a heavy price increase, but for you are a gamer.

9

An increase in wealth of nearly 0.6% (2013-10-01 19:46:40) is incredible high for a contrarian strategy for one day only. It’s due to the massive spikes in both directions that we have seen.

If I had waited on the price jump before selling PPC against a wall, my gain would be much higher. But I do not predict anything, and I have not foreseen it.

10

Hi whifmoi, your strategy is very interesting. What’s your indicator to go out of a currency completely? Or, when do you stop your investment? Is there some point you whould say: That’s enough, I don’t see more potenital (for example in PPC) I will invest in “whatever”?

11

At this time my internal spot price is:

InternalSpot = BTC_Balance / PPC_Balance = 4.24470327 BTC / 1613.40056245 PPC = 0.00263

This simple calc tells me, I can buy PPC below 0.00263, and sell some PPC over 0.00263.

If you have a dozen different assets, you can sell your gain as a maximum, or buy the descend as a maximum. Waiting on large jumps is more profitable. In this special case with only two assets half of your gain can be sold, or half of your descent can be bought.

I never go out of an asset completely, that I believe in. It’s always a compromise.

I see a potential in PPC, but not in the sense you and most others think of it. I think of it as a useful tool to help people to move payments easily all over the world. The gain in price is simply lucky, and I have to spread the gain in one asset to my other assets to reduce risk. Because it can come to a sudden end as any other asset can do also.

12

That is where the slippery slope is. Sometimes the price of an asset can go down and down for years. Usually at these times there are all sort of stories, theories, evidences, and real possibility that the price will never go up again, or worse, that the asset will go bust. How can you objectively make a judgement to hang on or to stop loss (which probably would look like a “run with the herd” because the herd have been leaving due the reason you are to accept). BTC is less than 5 years old. PPC is even younger. These are high risk assets.
The contratian method has its place. I have been using a slightly different one between BTC and LTC and telling people about it. However one has to understand the risk with this method.

13

Next day has gone, my gain in coins is 0.469%. This is a very surprising rise to me, because I missed to place the sell orders up to 0.003, where the last spike finished.

Please be patient, I will answer every question. Need some time to express my thoughts in a comprehensible fashion.

14

Sounds like you speak of gold. There are rumors that gold is manipulated down.

I don’t know, but it’s possible. Manipulation can last years, we don’t know when it stops. If you sell your gold on falling price, they’ve got you. This long lasting manipulation is the reason of why someone has to spread his assets. No more than 10% into one asset. One has to wait this long time before selling his low priced gold, manipulation will fail at some time. And if it fails, the jump into the opposite direction can be excessively.

With gold it’s the same as with other real assets: I think about a buy after a panic sell, I can wait even longer if I want.

15

Objectively I can not make a judgement on how the exchange rate will develop, but for I’m an insider. This is the reason I do not use stop loss, because I stick to the price of my limit order.

This becomes even more important with buying/selling company shares or investment fonds. Because I do not anticipate the price movement, I cannot set a stop loss. I expect that I have to reinvest in about 50% of all executed stop loss orders, so my loss is 50% of fees and spread at least. It’s for sure a win to banksters, and I will not support them. The only orders I use are limit orders.

16

[quote=“mhps, post:12, topic:383”]… How can you objectively make a judgement to hang on or to stop loss (which probably would look like a “run with the herd” because the herd have been leaving due the reason you are to accept). …

… However one has to understand the risk with this method.[/quote]
There are no risks on exchange rate movement, if you believe in the merit of your assets. I now explain why.

In my lesson above with the two assets Bitcoin and Peercoin, you own 10 BTC and 5000 PPC at an exchange rate of 0.002 BTC/PPC. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 0.001 BTC/PPC.
a) If you believe in BTC only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in PPC only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into BTC and PPC nothing changed

For payments there are ounces of gold and silver only, and you own 10 ounces of gold and 500 ounces of silver at an exchange rate of 0.02 gold ounce/silver ounce. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 0.01 gold ounce/silver ounce.
a) If you believe in gold only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in silver only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into gold and silver nothing changed

For savings you own 1000 USD and 100 shares from the Intel company at an exchange rate of 10 USD/Intel share. After some time the exchange rate suddenly drops to 5 USD/Intel share.
a) If you believe in USD only your wealth dropped
b) If you believe in Intel shares only your wealth increased
c) If you believe into USD and Intel shares nothing changed

Please do not answer impulsively, take your time to think about it. This makes it absolutely unnecessary to set stop loss limits, if you believe in both assets. And you should only own valuable assets, that you really believe in.

I have read these days that the cash of Warren Buffet is 60 billion USD. A few years ago it was 40 billion USD. Probably he does not think this radically as me, but the result is the same. Take the gain of the rising company shares (distribute assets) and wait on the next crash. Bitcoin movement learnt me that downwards is as good as upwards.

17

MAKE THIS PPC BUYER ON VIRCUREX A FAIR PRICE PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE!

18

I ran out of space on my second post, so I continue here.

My Trades

[tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-04 00:09:47 sell 7.00000000 0.00242900
2013-10-04 00:09:48 sell 7.00000000 0.00244900 4.09354413 1706.53960440 0.00240 50.0% 50.0%
2013-10-04 01:08:08 sell 7.00000000 0.00246900
2013-10-04 01:08:13 sell 6.63992000 0.00248900
2013-10-04 01:58:30 sell 0.36008000 0.00248900
2013-10-04 01:58:36 sell 7.00000000 0.00250900
2013-10-04 02:01:07 sell 7.00000000 0.00252900
2013-10-04 02:02:53 sell 7.00000000 0.00254900 4.18118352 1671.53960440 0.00255 49.5% 50.5%
2013-10-04 03:52:23 sell 7.00000000 0.00256900
2013-10-04 03:52:24 sell 7.00000000 0.00258900
2013-10-04 03:52:30 sell 7.00000000 0.00260900
2013-10-04 04:00:39 sell 6.99950000 0.00262900
2013-10-04 04:01:50 sell 7.00000000 0.00264900
2013-10-04 04:08:26 sell 7.00000000 0.00266900
2013-10-04 07:50:52 sell 7.00000000 0.00268900
2013-10-04 07:51:10 sell 7.00000000 0.00270900
2013-10-04 08:10:36 sell 7.00000000 0.00272900
2013-10-04 08:10:36 sell 6.15897935 0.00274900
2013-10-04 08:11:10 sell 0.84102065 0.00274900
2013-10-04 08:11:10 sell 7.00000000 0.00276900
2013-10-04 08:14:53 sell 7.00000000 0.00278900
2013-10-04 08:18:04 sell 7.00000000 0.00280900
2013-10-04 08:18:05 sell 6.70000000 0.00282900
2013-10-04 08:19:08 sell 0.30000000 0.00282900 4.44515528 1573.54010440 0.00274 50.8% 49.2%
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy 9.90000000 0.00270100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy 9.90000000 0.00267100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy 9.90000000 0.00264100
2013-10-04 09:11:37 buy 9.90000000 0.00261100 4.33997768 1613.06090440 0.00273 49.6% 50.4%
2013-10-04 09:37:41 sell 9.00000000 0.00278900
2013-10-04 09:37:41 sell 9.00000000 0.00281900
2013-10-04 09:38:51 sell 9.00000000 0.00284900
2013-10-04 09:38:52 sell 7.00000000 0.00286900 4.43598130 1579.06090440 0.00283 49.8% 50.2%
2013-10-04 09:50:55 sell 7.00000000 0.00288900
2013-10-04 10:16:01 sell 7.00000000 0.00290900
2013-10-04 10:16:01 sell 7.00000000 0.00292900
2013-10-04 10:30:26 sell 7.00000000 0.00294900
2013-10-04 10:30:26 sell 7.00000000 0.00296900
2013-10-04 10:52:38 sell 7.00000000 0.00298900
2013-10-04 10:54:12 sell 9.00000000 0.00302900
2013-10-04 10:55:25 sell 9.00000000 0.00305900
2013-10-04 10:55:25 sell 9.00000000 0.00308900
2013-10-04 10:55:26 sell 9.00000000 0.00311900 4.66961514 1501.06090440 0.00312 49.9% 50.1%
2013-10-04 13:56:47 sell 9.00000000 0.00317900
2013-10-04 14:02:41 sell 9.00000000 0.00320900
2013-10-04 14:03:54 sell 9.00000000 0.00323900
2013-10-04 14:06:32 sell 9.00000000 0.00326900
2013-10-04 14:06:32 sell 9.00000000 0.00329900
2013-10-04 14:07:17 sell 9.00000000 0.00332900
2013-10-04 14:14:18 sell 9.00000000 0.00335900
2013-10-04 14:14:18 sell 9.00000000 0.00338900
2013-10-04 14:14:19 sell 9.00000000 0.00341900 4.93629972 1420.06090440 0.00345 50.2% 49.8%
2013-10-04 17:37:26 buy 9.90000000 0.00307100
2013-10-04 17:39:49 buy 9.88010000 0.00305100
2013-10-04 17:40:06 buy 9.87880239 0.00303100 4.84580999 1449.66048899 0.00345 49.2% 50.8%
2013-10-04 22:15:20 sell 9.00000000 0.00341900
2013-10-04 22:15:25 sell 9.00000000 0.00344900
2013-10-04 22:23:38 sell 9.00000000 0.00347900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell 9.00000000 0.00350900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell 9.00000000 0.00353900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell 9.00000000 0.00356900
2013-10-04 23:16:13 sell 9.00000000 0.00359900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell 9.90000000 0.00363900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell 9.90000000 0.00368900
2013-10-04 23:24:37 sell 9.90000000 0.00373900
2013-10-04 23:37:39 sell 9.90000000 0.00378900
2013-10-04 23:58:20 sell 9.90000000 0.00383900 5.25114522 1337.16048899 0.00400 49.5% 50.5%
[/tt][hr][tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-05 00:53:55 buy 9.89990000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 00:54:25 buy 9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 00:54:30 buy 9.80497000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 00:54:54 buy 0.09503000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 00:54:55 buy 9.87991000 0.00336100
2013-10-05 00:55:22 buy 9.88010000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 00:55:47 buy 9.88010000 0.00326100
2013-10-05 00:56:08 buy 9.82480648 0.00321100
2013-10-05 00:56:51 buy 0.07519352 0.00321100
2013-10-05 00:56:51 buy 9.86014648 0.00316100 4.98725870 1416.10244517 0.00390 47.5% 52.5%
2013-10-05 01:11:43 buy 9.83498104 0.00341100
2013-10-05 01:12:58 buy 0.06501896 0.00341100
2013-10-05 01:12:58 buy 9.87997104 0.00336100
2013-10-05 01:15:55 buy 9.90000000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 01:36:59 buy 9.81782000 0.00321100
2013-10-05 01:37:25 buy 0.08218000 0.00321100
2013-10-05 01:37:26 buy 9.87993000 0.00316100
2013-10-05 02:14:58 buy 9.90000000 0.00311100
2013-10-05 02:15:06 buy 9.90000000 0.00306100
2013-10-05 02:19:15 buy 9.90000000 0.00301100 4.73357329 1495.10402642 0.00305 50.9% 49.1%
2013-10-05 03:23:00 sell 8.99990000 0.00338900
2013-10-05 03:24:42 sell 1.86236000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 03:24:59 sell 7.13764000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 03:25:53 sell 9.00000000 0.00348900
2013-10-05 03:26:30 sell 8.99990000 0.00353900
2013-10-05 03:27:13 sell 9.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-05 03:27:37 sell 9.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 03:29:46 sell 9.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 03:30:23 sell 1.06521000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 03:32:30 sell 7.93479000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 03:32:34 sell 7.93661000 0.00378900 5.01967906 1415.16761642 0.00370 48.9% 51.1%
2013-10-05 03:33:09 sell 1.06339000 0.00378900
2013-10-05 04:07:37 buy 9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 04:10:49 buy 9.90000000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 04:13:28 buy 9.82059031 0.00336100
2013-10-05 04:16:23 buy 9.90000000 0.00331100
2013-10-05 05:01:36 buy 9.88010000 0.00326100
2013-10-05 06:44:19 sell 7.99990000 0.00338900
2013-10-05 08:14:09 sell 8.00000000 0.00343900
2013-10-05 08:21:17 sell 8.00000000 0.00348900
2013-10-05 08:21:34 sell 8.00000000 0.00353900
2013-10-05 08:26:47 sell 9.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 08:27:02 sell 9.00000000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 08:46:17 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 09:40:30 buy 9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 09:41:58 buy 9.90000000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 09:42:03 buy 9.90000000 0.00341100
2013-10-05 09:55:46 sell 8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-05 09:57:03 sell 7.20140000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 09:57:25 sell 0.79860000 0.00363900
2013-10-05 09:57:40 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900 5.04882938 1411.04681535 0.00370 49.2% 50.8%
2013-10-05 10:26:42 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 10:31:30 sell 8.00000000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 12:18:48 buy 9.32497000 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:36 buy 0.51762056 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:44 buy 0.05740944 0.00356100
2013-10-05 12:22:44 buy 9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-05 12:25:36 buy 5.54290775 0.00346100
2013-10-05 12:27:36 buy 4.34828000 0.00346100
2013-10-05 12:34:30 buy 9.82147414 0.00341100
2013-10-05 12:35:20 buy 0.07852586 0.00341100
2013-10-05 12:35:20 buy 9.87994414 0.00336100
2013-10-05 13:17:29 sell 8.00000000 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:39:44 sell 8.00000000 0.00383900
2013-10-05 13:39:44 sell 9.00000000 0.00388900 5.03274595 1419.41900501 0.00370 48.9% 51.1%
2013-10-05 13:59:04 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-05 13:59:42 sell 8.00000000 0.00373900
2013-10-05 13:59:42 sell 1.43646726 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:59:59 sell 6.56353274 0.00378900
2013-10-05 13:59:59 sell 3.47010939 0.00383900
2013-10-05 15:00:08 sell 9.00000000 0.00398900
2013-10-05 15:03:44 sell 9.00000000 0.00403900
2013-10-05 15:22:35 sell 8.99990000 0.00408900
2013-10-05 18:02:07 buy 9.90000000 0.00371100
2013-10-05 18:03:16 buy 9.89990000 0.00366100
2013-10-05 18:03:31 buy 8.93697068 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:29:10 buy 0.90236021 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:59:14 buy 0.06066911 0.00361100
2013-10-05 20:59:14 buy 0.76019924 0.00356100
2013-10-05 20:59:45 buy 9.13980076 0.00356100 5.10044687 1404.46969584 0.00360 50.2% 49.8%
2013-10-05 22:35:53 buy 9.90000000 0.00356100
2013-10-05 23:39:36 buy 1.80041814 0.00351100
2013-10-05 23:39:52 buy 8.09958186 0.00351100
2013-10-05 23:43:27 buy 9.90000000 0.00346100 4.99617018 1434.11029585 0.00345 50.2% 49.8%
[/tt][hr][tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-06 01:37:09 sell 8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 03:20:08 sell 8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 03:20:25 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 04:51:01 sell 7.99990000 0.00373900
2013-10-06 05:22:49 sell 7.97912000 0.00378900
2013-10-06 10:37:28 sell 6.00000000 0.00378900
2013-10-06 12:19:22 sell 2.00000000 0.00378900
2013-10-06 13:08:43 sell 8.00000000 0.00383900 5.20425771 1378.13127585 0.00380 49.8% 50.2%
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy 9.90000000 0.00366100
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy 9.90000000 0.00361100
2013-10-06 16:14:09 buy 9.90000000 0.00356100
2013-10-06 16:14:15 buy 9.90000000 0.00351100
2013-10-06 16:23:10 buy 5.69274102 0.00346100
2013-10-06 16:28:13 buy 4.20725898 0.00346100
2013-10-06 16:28:13 buy 9.90000000 0.00341100
2013-10-06 16:34:47 buy 9.88010000 0.00336100
2013-10-06 16:37:09 buy 9.88010000 0.00331100
2013-10-06 16:43:12 sell 8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 17:09:46 sell 8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 17:22:56 sell 8.00000000 0.00358900
2013-10-06 17:24:01 sell 8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 17:27:46 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 18:20:15 buy 9.88010000 0.00346100
2013-10-06 18:36:23 sell 8.00000000 0.00363900
2013-10-06 18:36:27 sell 8.00000000 0.00368900
2013-10-06 18:36:33 sell 8.00000000 0.00373900 5.12733292 1402.99349526 0.00365 50.0% 50.0%
2013-10-06 20:50:35 buy 9.90000000 0.00356100
2013-10-06 23:33:47 buy 0.10000000 0.00359877 5.09171915 1412.97349526 0.00355 50.4% 49.6%
[/tt][hr][tt]Date Time Type PPC_Quantity BTC_Price BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_weight PPC_weight
2013-10-06 23:33:47 exit - - 5.09171915 1412.97349526 0.00355 50.4% 49.6%
[/tt]

My Wealth
Because I have no preference for one coin, have no preference for any real asset I own, I will calculate my inital wealth and intermittent wealth in both PPC and BTC. And no, Dollars or Euros are no assets for me, there’s no reason why I should calculate the wealth in fiat money. Looks good, but makes no sense.
[tt]
Date Time BTC_Balance PPC_Balance Spot BTC_wealth PPC_wealth gain
2013-09-29 01:57:46 4.93166438 1155.82162320 0.00180 7.01214330 3895.63516764 -
2013-09-29 21:03:36 3.73659314 1802.02271033 0.00192 7.19647674 3748.16497075 2.324%
2013-09-30 18:11:10 3.82984372 1763.68924129 0.00215 7.62177559 3545.01190176 0.206%
2013-10-01 19:46:40 3.97725437 1719.51428627 0.00240 8.10408866 3376.70360710 0.598%
2013-10-02 23:35:57 4.00221177 1724.93960439 0.00240 8.14206682 3392.52784189 0.469%
2013-10-03 16:35:12 4.05946641 1720.53960440 0.00240 8.22283918 3426.18299190 0.992%
2013-10-04 23:58:20 5.25114522 1337.16048899 0.00400 10.59978718 2649.94679399 -0,367%
2013-10-05 23:43:27 4.99617018 1434.11029585 0.00345 9.94385070 2882.27556541 1,038%
2013-10-06 23:33:47 5.09171915 1412.97349526 0.00355 10.10777506 2847.26057977 0.215%
[/tt]

19

Hey, what’s that, a negative gain for the last day! How did this happen?

There have been no spikes, that I could profit from. Instead there was a long run up (for PPC, down for BTC), that I sold my PPC all the time. So I’ve got no gain from this, the worst case scenario is a gain of 0 with this strategy. Why is the gain negative?

a) It can happen if oneself miscalculates the maximum amounts to sell or to buy. This way oneself violates the riskless strategy. It happened to me the way up, where I sold too much of my PPC. It’s better to underestimate the amount to sell or buy.

b) I yet don’t know if my calc of the gain is accurate enough. With the huge increase of the exchange rate from 0.00240 to 0.00400 between the two days, my calc could be insufficient. I expect for this next day a readjustment of the gain on a high positive level again, because I did some contrarian trades already.

20

My lesson will last for the next 24 hours, then I will finish this. Discussion persists.

Again and again we are seeing this walls. Some of them seems honestly, until they are countervailed. Others are jumping around like clowns. Don’t panic, do not permit this to influence your strategy. I had to buy against a wall to balance my assats again, see timestamp 2013-10-03 16:35:12 and the panic buy before.

Regardless of gold is manipulated down, and you do not hold some ounces of gold or silver, buy them and hold them. The manipulators perhaps build up something like a huge gold sell wall, but this will not last forever.

To phrase this more theoretically: If you see their walls, but they do not see yours, you have an informational advantage about them. Benefit from it. Sometimes it happened that a wall suddenly jumped in front of my nose, and I had to rebalance my assets.