[quote=“sabreiib, post:19, topic:1794”]Mhps,according to
http://xpm.muuttuja.org/charts/
XPM supply Is steady at 6million per year, is that right?[/quote]
Now there are 5.8m XPM. Six months ago there were 3.7m. So it takes a half year to increase by 2.1m. The rate is 4.2m/year on average in the last 6 months. The supply rate is roughly constant but not exactly. It has dropped by 10% since early April due to difficulty increase.
could you predict the supply for the next 10 years? According to newest data.
The newest data don’t provide significantly more information than the data did when the first post was made.
The total network computation power has outpaced model prediction based on Moore’s Law, which was discussed in the first post. But the lead has been shrinking:
On Jan 16 2004 the network difficulty was 10.4, the model prediction was 7.8. Actual difficulty lead was 9 months.
Today the actual difficulty is 10.966, the prediction is 9.0. Actual difficulty lead is 6 months.
It is still a reasonable guess that the lead will decrease more and Moore’s Law will apply in the long term.
I don’t know if 11-chains are 10 times rarer than 10-chains as the model assumed. How about 12-chains compare with 11-chains? Has anyone counted? If for every step of difficulty increase there are 30 times less target chains, instead of 10 times, then there will be more coins generated because the difficulty will decrease slower (by log10(30)). After 5 years there will be 25mil XPM. The total cap will be 36mil.
What is the conclusion?
Are we going to have a supply in the millions or in the billions decades from now?
This depends if Moore s law holds or not, right?
[quote=“crypto_coiner, post:24, topic:1794”]What is the conclusion?
Are we going to have a supply in the millions or in the billions decades from now?
This depends if Moore s law holds or not, right?[/quote]
The last sentence in the first post.
25millions is the take home number. About the same as BTC.
According to Mikaelh’s measurement there are more like 30 times less target chains when target increases by 1, after diff=9. In the first post the ratio was assumed to be 10. If we modify the ratio to 30, we have diff = 6 + LOG2/LOG(ratio) * (t/18). The results are
t N/N0 diff XPB XPM SUM
0 1.00 6.00 27.75 1215450.00 1215450.00
12 1.22 7.58 17.39 761682.22 12536941.99
60 2.75 13.9 5.17 226572.95 32211556.30
15yr 20.7 29.7 1.13 49636.92 44849284.66
30yr 429 53.4 0.35 15355.59 49801621.93
150y 1.5E13 242.9 0.02 741.60 54653682.36 The cap is about 55 million XPM. We know that the ratio is about 10 in the first several diff steps. So the calculation for 12 months after release is quite off from reality. I believe after a few years the above calculation is more accurate.
[quote=“mhps, post:26, topic:1794”]According to Mikaelh’s measurement there are more like 30 times less target chains when target increases by 1, after diff=9. In the first post the ratio was assumed to be 10. If we modify the ratio to 30, we have diff = 6 + LOG2/LOG(ratio) * (t/18). The results are
t N/N0 diff XPB XPM SUM
0 1.00 6.00 27.75 1215450.00 1215450.00
12 1.22 7.58 17.39 761682.22 12536941.99
60 2.75 13.9 5.17 226572.95 32211556.30
15yr 20.7 29.7 1.13 49636.92 44849284.66
30yr 429 53.4 0.35 15355.59 49801621.93
150y 1.5E13 242.9 0.02 741.60 54653682.36 The cap is about 55 million XPM. We know that the ratio is about 10 in the first several diff steps. So the calculation for 12 months after release is quite off from reality. I believe after a few years the above calculation is more accurate.[/quote]
Today is almost 12 months after XPM release and only 6 millions while this table shows 12 millions.
That is why I wrote most of the last paragraph. The ratio was 10 before diff=9. It doesn’t make much difference for the cap.
The diff seems not act as expected and the currency keeps expanding