Ok, I’m on a roll now. Just found the average coin age here: ppc.cryptocoinexplorer.com. There is also the %coins days destroyed. 77.762% This says something about the liquidity of the coin. Unsure if that comes in handy, I’m parking this one for now.
As of today average coin age is 91.3113. We have 21,040,910 coins created.
So the coin age pool is 91.3113 * 21,040,910 = ~ 1,921,272,845 (total number of possible lottery tickets)
However coins <30d are not eligible and coins not online (at stake) are not in the lottery either.
Let’s assume that most people would put up their coins at stake when they matured to 90d (most effective). This would mean that 33% with eligible coins would not join the lottery on average.
Let’s also assume that 10% of those doesn’t put up their coins at stake at all (too small, lost, forgot about it etc.)
So we have 100% - 33% - (10% of 33%) = 63.3%
BTW Feel free to adjust those assumptions or comment if you have good sources where you can better calculate them.
Ok, so 63,3% of 1,921,272,845 coindays are really in the competition on a daily bases on average. That is ~ 121,615,710 coindays.
Now we can calculate the chance you would have assuming all variables static. In real life they won’t be as stakes/coindays would be destroyed when succeeding in creating a block and people would be bring coins on and off-line. But I think this is as close as we can get.
So let’s make the simplest calculation and calculate a percentage and duration for 100 PPC with 90 coindays. Only put at stake on day 90 (is maximum stake).
So we have 9000 coindays (coinage) at stake (9000 tickets in the lottery)
So in the previous post we assumed we have 5 block per hour = 120 blocks per day (so we have 120 draws a day)
To calculate the chance to solve block 1 we calculate as follows: 9000/121,615,710*100 = 0.007400 % chance to solve the first block.
Luckily we have some more blocks on a day (120), so our chance goes up 120x 0.007400% = to solve a block in 24 hours = 0.888%
So theoretically it would take 100/0.888 = ~112 days to solve a block for 100 PPC with 90d coinage.
We can make it even more complicated and account for coinage lower than 30days which will build up and increase your chance during their time at stake. Could draw a nice diagram with that. Leave that for the Excel gurus under us.
My conclusion based on the assumptions is that you have to really hang on with only 100 PPC. And that would provide you with 112/365 of 1% = 0.3% = .0.3% * 100 PPC = 0.3 PPC
With a current value of $6 that is $1,80.. No hard guarantees though. Same guarantee as that a dice with 6 faces throws each face a sixth of the time. But we all know that there are variances and that we can throw one side 3 or 4 times in a row if we’re lucky.
The weakest part of the above assumptions is how many wallets with how much stake are on-line at a certain point in time. I understand that when you increase the number of wallets that would increase your chances (not sure why though), but without knowing these exact numbers it’s a BIG assumption.
Please let me know if there are any mistakes, wrong assumption, or better proposals etc. in the above.
If all checked by the community, I think we will get PoS calculator including an estimate of time to realise your stake soon (with some assumptions)
In the mean time it won’t hurt if people would post their experiences with a the number of coins at stake, the coinage and the the number of days they had to wait. This would be another way of proofing the assumption made above or tweaking them closer to reality. Maybe we can find a way of anonymously posting those numbers somewhere as I can understand people won’t be keen to share this sensitive information. Any ideas?
Edit: posting experience anonymously